何が書いてあるか。December 14-15, 2021：Minutes of the FOMC

サマリー

2022年1月5日に公開されたFOMC議事録に記載されている内容は、大きく以下の7つ。

特に、『Committee Policy Action』が1～6までのサマリーの様な内容になっている。この項目を読むと、大まかに内容を確認することができる。

具体的な項目は、次の7項目。

1. Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations
2. Discussion of Policy Normalization Considerations
3. Staff Review of the Economic Situation
4. Staff Review of the Financial Situation
5. Staff Economic Outlook
6. Participants’ Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook
7. Committee Policy Action

FOMCでの結論

全体の認識として、経済指標と雇用の状況が良くなっている事、及びその状況が継続している事を確認しています。

特にインフレーションに関しては、『 supply and demand imbalances 』が継続して影響を与えていることが明記されました。

バランスシートの拡大を3月の中旬で停止することも示唆されています。

これは、前回開催のFOMCから認識が変更されていることになります。

私が重要だなと感じた原文を以下に抜粋。

• indicators of economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen.
• Job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.
• supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy had continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation.
• Overall financial conditions remained accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
• As elevated inflation had persisted for longer than they had previously anticipated, note that supply and demand imbalances have continued to contribute to elevated inflation.
• with inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expected that it would be appropriate to maintain the current target range of 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions had reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment.
• In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, members decided to reduce the monthly pace of the Federal Reserve’s net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency MBS. Specifically, beginning in January, the Committee would increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency MBS by at least $20 billion per month. Members also agreed that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases would likely be appropriate in subsequent months, implying that increases in the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings would cease by mid-March under the Committee’s outlook, a few months sooner than had been anticipated at the previous meeting.

個別トピックから気になる点を抜粋

Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations

• While prices of equities that are sensitive to COVID-19 risks declined significantly, the S&P 500 index was little changed.
• The median respondent’s projected timing for the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate also moved earlier from the first quarter of 2023 to June 2022.

Discussion of Policy Normalization Considerations

• Almost all participants agreed that it would likely be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. However, participants judged that the appropriate timing of balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to that of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee’s previous experience. 
• the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode.

Staff Review of the Economic Situation

• U.S. real GDP growth was picking up in the fourth quarter after having slowed in the third quarter. 
• Labor market conditions continued to improve in October and November, and measures of compensation had risen sharply so far this year.
• Consumer price inflation through October—as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—remained elevated.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly, on average, in October and November, but the average gain was below that seen in recent quarters.
• The unemployment rate declined from 4.8 percent in September to 4.2 percent in November; the unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics also declined substantially over this period, but both rates remained well above the national average. 
• Total PCE price inflation was 5.0 percent over the 12 months ending in October, and core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 4.1 percent over the same period.
• The trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was 2.6 percent in October, an increase of 0.6 percentage point relative to two months earlier.
• In November, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) was 6.8 percent, while core CPI inflation was 4.9 percent over the same period. 

Staff Review of the Financial Situation

• Overall, financing conditions for businesses and households remained accommodative except for small businesses and nonprime borrowers.
• Emerging market economy (EME) sovereign spreads widened, and capital flows into EME-dedicated funds turned slightly negative in the second half of November, partly in response to concerns about the Omicron variant.

Participants’ Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook

• with progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen.
• In their discussion of the household sector, participants generally noted that demand for consumer goods had remained strong, likely supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, increased household income as more people found jobs, increasing net worth of the household sector, and the high level of savings accumulated through the course of the pandemic.
• supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages continued to limit businesses’ ability to meet strong demand. 
• labor markets continued to strengthen, with the unemployment rate falling rapidly and payrolls growing at a solid pace.
• the U.S. labor market was very tight, including near-record rates of quits and job vacancies, as well as a notable pickup in wage growth. In line with the recent data showing a rise in the employment cost index, many participants reported District business contacts either planning or having implemented larger wage increases to retain current employees or attract new workers.
• inflation readings had been higher and were more persistent and widespread than previously anticipated. 
• In light of elevated inflation pressures and the strengthening labor market, participants judged that the increase in policy accommodation provided by the ongoing pace of net asset purchases was no longer necessary. 
• it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate.

感想

2020年3月から開始された金融緩和が、いよいよ終了しようとしています。

いつ、どのように終了するかは、マーケットの参加者が注目している内容です。今回の議事録では、具体的なペース配分や時期についての考え方が明記されていました。

前回のFOMCから修正された内容がマーケットに織り込まれたことになります。

相場全体から個別企業、マクロからミクロの環境が重要になる局面が到来する2022年になりそうです。